Ron Baron, the longtime growth investor behind Baron Capital, is betting big on Space Exploration Technologies, and he lays out a jaw-dropping picture of what a decade of success could mean for shareholders. He points to past wins with Tesla, massive private and public fundraising for SpaceX, and huge ambitions for Starlink, orbital AI, and bespoke chips as the reasons he thinks the company could multiply in value many times over.
Baron built his reputation by backing big, disruptive companies early, and his firm rode Tesla’s surge to massive gains. That history is the backdrop for why he started buying SpaceX years ago when it was still private and later increased his stake during the IPO phases.
He frames SpaceX as a company with an enormous lead in rockets, satellite manufacturing, and network design, saying the firm is years ahead of rivals. That edge, combined with Elon Musk’s track record in scaling complex projects, is central to Baron’s bullish case for long-term growth.
A major pillar of Baron’s thesis is Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet system, which he believes can become a global backbone for connectivity. “It’s going to be the internet for the entire planet,” Baron said, and he expects the network to expand dramatically to meet rising data demand.
Baron projects enormous financials for Starlink in a decade, forecasting $1 trillion in annual revenue and EBITDA in the hundreds of billions, values that would imply a multitrillion-dollar valuation just for the satellite arm. He also envisions SpaceX leveraging orbital infrastructure for artificial intelligence workloads, a plan that could shift how data centers are conceived and deployed.
The firm’s plans go beyond satellites: Baron has highlighted SpaceX’s AI unit and the potential for orbital data centers, which the company could begin to deploy as early as 2027. He also mentioned an ambitious idea to build custom chips in partnership with other major companies to serve these specific high-performance needs.
Baron has been willing to put capital on the line, describing tens of billions in potential position value depending on fundraising and valuation moves. His letters to investors and public comments suggest he expects SpaceX to scale to many times its post-IPO value if these bets pay off.
With that level of conviction, Baron laid out a scenario where a $50,000 investment near the IPO price could climb tenfold to thirtyfold over a decade or more, producing returns that would catch most investors’ attention. He cautions, however, that such outcomes depend on a string of technical and market successes that are far from guaranteed.
There are clear risks: Starship must become operational and reusable at scale, the economics and logistics of orbital data centers need to be proved, and the cost structures for mass satellite deployment must hold up against competition and regulation. Institutional enthusiasm does not remove execution risk, and Baron has acknowledged that large investors can be wrong.
Retail investors should weigh Baron’s optimism against those practical hurdles and conduct their own diligence instead of following institutional moves blindly. While past performance and bold visions can be inspiring, the path from ambitious forecasts to delivered profits is full of technological, regulatory, and market challenges.
*Stock Advisor returns as of June 27, 2026. If Baron’s most aggressive estimates come true, the payoff would be massive, but the company must clear multiple high bars for that to happen. For now, his stance is one of fierce optimism tempered by the reality that execution will determine whether SpaceX becomes a generational winner or a cautionary tale.
