In a recent national head-to-head survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports, former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by three percentage points.
“Trump came out ahead 49% to 46%. That amounts to a slight gain for Harris, who was lagging behind Trump 45% to 49% in Rasmussen’s poll last week. When third-party hopefuls were added to the mix, Trump came out on top again with 47% to Harris’ 45%, followed by independent contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 4%, and all others at 1% or less, per Rasmussen,” the New York Post reported.
“Rasmussen’s findings are an outlier among recent national polling. The conservative-leaning firm has often been at odds with other top pollsters. In 2016, it was among the closest firms to the final result. Harris is averaging a two-point lead over Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of a national five-way race. In a two-way race, her lead slips to 1.5 percentage points,” the Post added.
The competition for polling in battleground states has intensified, as different firms are reporting diverse results in the key races. Harris continues to trail behind Trump.
RealClearPolitics predicts that Trump is set to secure 287 Electoral College votes while Harris will receive 251, except for Wisconsin.
Recent polling has shown favorable results for Trump, as he appears to have regained his lead after an initial surge in support for Vice President Kamala Harris following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection campaign in July.
Harris had been enjoying positive media coverage in mainstream outlets, most of which lean left on their editorial pages, while Trump’s coverage has been predominantly negative. Previous polling by the Cook Political Report showed Harris leading in several key swing states.
However, a more recent survey by Navigator Research indicates that the race is now essentially tied in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In individual states, Trump leads Harris by a small margin in Arizona and Pennsylvania, while the other three states are too close to call.
The Navigator survey aligns with the RealClearPolitics Polling average of battleground states, including Nevada and Georgia.
The vice president’s performance in these states is outpacing Biden’s before he dropped out of the race last month.
Trump had maintained a lead of over 4 percent across the seven states in the RCP average prior to Biden’s departure on July 21, with his advantage increasing as the announcement neared.
Chauncey McLean, president of Future Forward, a major super PAC backing Harris, raised eyebrows on Monday by suggesting that her polling numbers are being exaggerated. Reuters reported that McLean spoke at an event in Chicago associated with the Democratic National Convention.
“Our numbers are much less rosy than what you’re seeing in the public,” said McLean, who rarely speaks in public.
McLean’s analysis indicates that Kamala Harris has garnered substantial backing from young voters of color following Biden’s departure, resulting in a resurgence of Democratic potential in Sunbelt states such as Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. These are states that were largely overlooked by Democrats in the closing stages of Biden’s campaign.
“She has multiple paths,” with seven states in play, he said, according to Reuters. He added that voters want more details about her policy positions, according to internal polling. He asserts that voters are not interested in “white papers” or empty platitudes. Instead, they want concrete examples of how Harris might differ from Biden and how she plans to improve their economic situation.
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