Texas politics is suddenly looking a lot more unsettled than the state’s long Republican streak would suggest. A new Fox News poll shows the Senate race locked in a dead heat while Greg Abbott holds a clearer edge in the governor’s contest, setting up a night full of cross-pressures, party loyalty tests, and voters who are still sorting out how they feel about the major names on the ballot.
For a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades, the Senate numbers stand out. Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are tied at 49% among likely voters, a sharp turnaround from the previous month, when Talarico had a small advantage. The shift appears to come from Paxton tightening his grip on conservatives, rural voters, suburban women, and voters who had backed John Cornyn in the primary.
That doesn’t mean the race is moving cleanly in one direction. Talarico remains strong with Black voters, younger voters, urban Texans, and college-educated women, while Paxton’s best terrain is among White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, and seniors. The map is split enough that a few points here and there can flip the whole thing, which is exactly why both camps are treating every headline like it matters.
Hispanic voters also remain one of the more interesting pieces of the puzzle. After swinging sharply in Trump’s direction in 2024, they now favor Talarico by 30 points and prefer Democratic control of the Senate by an even wider margin. That kind of movement does not just affect one race, it can reshape the entire tone of the campaign if it holds.
Republicans still have an overall edge in Texas when voters are asked which party they want in charge of the Senate, but that lead is modest. The poll shows Texans favoring Republicans by 4 points on control of the chamber, an improvement from the previous survey, yet not nearly enough to make anyone comfortable. Talarico also benefits from unusually strong party discipline, with nearly all Democrats lining up behind him and a noticeable slice of non-MAGA Republicans crossing over.
Energy matters too, and the poll suggests Democrats are bringing more of it. A larger share of Democrats say they are extremely interested in the election than Republicans, and those highly engaged voters lean toward Talarico. That gives his side a built-in buzz factor that can matter a lot in a race where the margins are already razor-thin.
Paxton’s main problem is not just partisan competition, it is baggage. His favorability numbers are underwater, while Talarico sits just above water, and the group of voters who dislike both candidates still leans Paxton’s way. At the same time, many Texans worry Talarico is too liberal, while nearly as many think Paxton is too close to Trump, which leaves both men carrying a fair amount of political caution around their necks.
Trump’s standing in the state is another wrinkle. He won Texas comfortably in 2024, but his job rating now sits below water, and that creates room for ticket splitting and candidate-specific voting. Paxton still pulls support from some voters who are not happy with Trump, while Talarico even picks up a small slice of Trump supporters, which says plenty about how scrambled this race is.
Money also remains a major mood setter. More Texans say they are worse off financially than better off compared with two years ago, and those voters break heavily for Talarico. Voters who feel better off, or even just unchanged, tilt Paxton’s way, making personal finances a real dividing line in the race rather than just background noise.
The governor’s race looks more stable for Republicans, even if it is not exactly a walk. Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 5 points, and his job approval is slightly positive, which gives him a sturdier base than Paxton has in the Senate contest. He also benefits from better party loyalty and a little more ticket splitting from voters who back Talarico but still lean Republican at the top of the ticket.
Still, the same restless energy running through the Senate race is sitting just below the surface everywhere else. Texans are not handing out easy answers, and the numbers suggest a campaign season where every voter bloc has its own logic, its own grudge, and its own reason to keep both parties guessing.
