The Trump administration is betting big on Venezuela’s buried energy wealth, with a new arrangement that could put the U.S. in a dominant position over a massive oil reserve. Supporters say the move could help ease pressure at the pump, though the road from paper deal to cheaper gasoline is anything but instant.
Trump said Friday the agreement gives the United States access to the kind of scale that can change the energy picture fast, pointing to 65 billion barrels tied to Venezuela’s proven reserves. The plan centers on a new private company that would manage production across 17 oil fields, with the U.S. holding a 55% effective interest in the output.
That matters because gas prices are still feeling the heat from global disruption. Americans are paying an average of $4.08 a gallon for regular gas, a sharp jump from $3.20 a year ago, and world energy markets have been shaky enough to keep drivers on edge.
The agreement does not mean the U.S. will instantly tap every barrel on day one. Roughly 35.75 billion barrels are not about to show up overnight, and the real payoff depends on whether the fields can actually be built out, modernized, and pushed into steady production.
There is also a practical perk in the deal: the U.S. would be able to buy Venezuelan oil at cost. That could create a lower-priced supply path for American buyers if output rises enough to matter, but that is still a big if.
Energy analysts have made it clear that Venezuela’s oil industry is not a quick fix. Years of underinvestment have left the country’s oil sector in rough shape, and experts say it will take a mountain of cash, equipment, and time before production can meaningfully climb.
Rystad Energy said in July that production could rise 17% by 2028, but only if major improvements happen first. The list is long and blunt: more drilling, serious workovers, stronger infrastructure, and a lot more rig availability.
Venezuela’s crude also comes with a nasty twist. Much of it is so heavy and thick that it needs diluents, the lighter hydrocarbons mixed in to help it move through pipelines and reach refineries and export points without turning into a mess.
That problem is not new, and the industry has been talking about it for years. In 2021, S&P Global described Venezuelan oil as having “the viscosity of asphalt,” which gives a pretty vivid sense of just how stubborn this resource can be.
None of that has stopped the Trump team from leaning into the upside. Trump said the deal would boost U.S. oil supply and “substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed that message, saying the agreement could bring nearly $100 billion in private investment into Venezuela and help bring prices down in the United States. The pitch is straightforward: unlock the reserve, get capital moving, and let the market breathe again.
Still, private investors have every reason to be cautious. Venezuela’s infrastructure has degraded badly, and the business climate has been far from stable, which is exactly why major oil companies have kept their distance.
That hesitation showed up when Trump met with oil executives after Nicolás Maduro was ousted. Some companies were interested in the possibilities, but others were not ready to jump in, and ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods reportedly called Venezuela “un-investable.”
The broader energy fight is playing out against a background of frustration with expensive fuel and years of hand-wringing over foreign supply. The White House is making a clear bet that heavy U.S. involvement, fresh private money, and a more aggressive approach can turn a weak oil sector into a powerful lever for American consumers.
