Texans delivered a sharp rebuke to Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the Republican primary, choosing state lawmaker Steve Toth by a decisive margin and handing conservatives a clear win. The upset marks the first congressional incumbent loss in the 2026 midterms and signals a shift in Republican primary voters’ mood in heavily red districts. This piece walks through the result, the key tensions that drove it, and what it means for the GOP as the general election approaches.
Steve Toth won the primary by a wide margin, capturing a majority that avoids a runoff and all but guaranteeing his victory in November given the district’s partisan makeup. Voters told precincts they wanted a representative who mirrors their conservative priorities rather than a headline-grabbing incumbent. Locals made clear they preferred someone who would prioritize their views on spending, borders, and national defense over national media presence.
Toth campaigned as a traditional conservative fighter, leaning into grassroots energy and local organizing that outpaced Crenshaw’s national-profile strategy. He emphasized accountability, limited government, and a commitment to conservative judges and policy. That message landed with primary voters who felt Crenshaw had drifted from the base on a handful of high-profile issues.
Crenshaw ran as a proven vote for conservative positions on many roll calls, but his public stance and media moments created distance between him and primary voters. He has been prominent on cable and late-night stages, and some in the party said his profile didn’t line up with boots-on-the-ground constituent work. In a primary, perception matters as much as votes, and that perception tilted against him this cycle.
One sharp line between the candidates was foreign policy—Crenshaw’s vocal support for Ukraine rankled many primary voters who prefer a focus on America first. That stance became a flashpoint for critics who argued he prioritized foreign engagements over conservative domestic priorities. Toth used that split to argue for a tighter focus on homefront issues and fiscal restraint.
Crenshaw also tangled with several conservative figures, creating public friction inside the GOP that energized Toth’s base. He traded barbs with media personalities and fellow senators, and those clashes piled up into a narrative that he was more interested in headlines than conservative unity. Primary voters rewarded the candidate who promised steadier alignment with party priorities.
One episode that cut deep into Crenshaw’s credibility was an on-the-record exchange captured by a reporter, in which he made violent remarks about a fellow media figure. The comments were recorded and later shared publicly, heightening questions about judgment and temperament. “No, we’ve talked a lot on Twitter. If I ever meet him I’ll fucking kill him,” Crenshaw apparently said on the video Edginton about before adding, “No, seriously, I’ll kill him. He’s the worst person I’ve ever met.”
Incidents like that, combined with other high-profile spats, gave primary voters pause about reelecting a representative who generated controversy. Many told activists they wanted a steady, predictable conservative voice in Washington rather than a lightning rod. Toth positioned himself as that steadier hand, promising to focus on delivering results for the district.
The loss has immediate implications for Republican strategy in the House and for how incumbents approach the primary electorate. It underscores the risk sitting members face when their public profile departs from local expectations. Candidates who court national attention at the expense of local relationships now face a sharper price at the ballot box.
Looking ahead, the district’s partisan lean means Toth is set up for the general election with a strong advantage, but the win also sets a tone for what the Republican base expects from its leaders. The party’s activists and voters are sending a clear message: local conservatism and doctrinal fidelity matter in primaries. Lawmakers taking anything for granted in solidly red districts should take note.
This result will reverberate beyond one district as other challengers and incumbents watch the playbook that worked here—ground game, clear conservative messaging, and leveraging controversies that raise questions about character and judgment. For the GOP, it’s a reminder that primary voters will hold representatives accountable on both policy and persona. The coming months will test whether national Republicans unify behind the new nominee and how the party turns this primary energy into a November victory.
Proof Dan Crenshaw said he would KILL Tucker Carlson if he met him. He told me when I laughed it wasn’t a joke. https://t.co/bLJSI3tWmQ
— Steven Edginton (@StevenEdginton) February 24, 2025
