The 2024 presidential race has taken a dramatic turn as recent polling data reveals that the lead Kamala Harris once held over former President Donald Trump has all but vanished. According to NBC News’ latest survey conducted from October 4 to October 8, Harris and Trump are now tied at 48% in a head-to-head matchup. This comes as a significant shift, with Trump gaining four percentage points in the last month, narrowing the gap after trailing Harris by five points in September.
The numbers are a stark warning for the Harris campaign, which had been riding high just a few weeks ago. The new NBC poll is the latest indication that the race has tightened significantly, leaving both candidates on equal footing as they enter the final stretch before Election Day.
Harris’ drop in support is concerning for Democrats. In NBC’s September poll, she led Trump by 49% to 44%, a comfortable margin at the time. But now, with a deadlocked 48%-48% race, it’s clear that the momentum has shifted. NBC political analyst Steve Kornacki pointed out the significance of this shift, tweeting that Harris’ lead has “all but evaporated.”
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When third-party candidates such as Cornel West and Dr. Jill Stein are included in the polling, the situation becomes even more precarious for Harris. Trump edges out Harris by a narrow 47% to 46%, a sign that third-party candidates could siphon off crucial votes, potentially swinging the election in Trump’s favor.
Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that 4% of voters remain undecided or unwilling to choose between the two main candidates. With third-party candidates in the mix and undecided voters still on the fence, the race is now in a precarious position for both campaigns, but especially for Harris.
The poll also highlighted changes in how voters perceive both candidates. Trump’s favorability rating has improved since September, rising from 40% to 43%. Meanwhile, Harris has seen her favorability drop from 48% to 43%, a five-point decline in just a month. While both candidates still hold high negative ratings—Trump at 51% and Harris at 49%—the slight improvement for Trump could be pivotal as Election Day draws closer.
The findings also show that 45% of respondents believe the Biden-Harris administration’s policies have negatively impacted their lives, compared to only 25% who feel they’ve benefited from these policies. This dissatisfaction may be contributing to Harris’ fading support.
The situation is even more concerning for Harris when swing state data is considered. A separate poll released by the Wall Street Journal on the same day shows Trump leading Harris by a razor-thin margin of 46% to 45%, with battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin still too close to call.
The inclusion of third-party candidates, such as Cornel West and Jill Stein, is further complicating the dynamics of the race. These candidates could pull enough votes away from Harris to hand key states—and the election—to Trump. The NBC poll shows that 7% of respondents are either supporting other candidates or remain undecided, leaving the door wide open for a last-minute shift in the outcome.
Another crucial factor in the race is Trump’s performance with key demographic groups, particularly minority voters. CNN’s polling expert Harry Enten highlighted this development, noting that Trump is on track to achieve the best performance among Black voters since Richard Nixon in 1960. He’s also expected to perform better with Hispanic voters than any Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004.
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This surge in minority support could be a game-changer for Trump. The former president has made significant inroads with Black and Hispanic communities, traditionally strongholds for Democratic candidates. If these trends hold, Trump could make up ground in pivotal swing states, where minority voters play a critical role.
The latest polling data underscores the volatile nature of the 2024 presidential election. Kamala Harris is facing a rapidly changing landscape, and her once-comfortable lead has disintegrated. The Harris campaign is now entering a critical phase, where it must find a way to recapture the momentum and re-energize its base.
Harris has been active on the campaign trail, focusing on battleground states and emphasizing town halls and media appearances. Despite these efforts, the numbers suggest that it’s not translating into increased voter support. NBC’s Mika Brzezinski, on Morning Joe, pointed out the concern within the Democratic Party, noting that Harris’ drop in support could spell trouble for the party’s chances in November.
Brzezinski’s comments reflect a broader sense of urgency among Democrats as the election looms. She emphasized that it’s not just up to Harris to turn things around; voters themselves need to take action. “If you are worried Harris could very well lose, well, do something,” she urged, pointing to the critical role of voter turnout in the final weeks of the campaign.
As the race heads into its final weeks, both the Harris and Trump campaigns are expected to ramp up their efforts. For Harris, the challenge is clear: she needs to halt Trump’s momentum and convince undecided and third-party voters to back her candidacy. On the other hand, Trump’s campaign will be focused on maintaining his recent surge in support, particularly among minority voters and in battleground states.
With polls showing a deadlocked race and third-party candidates complicating the path to victory, the 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent history. Both campaigns have everything to fight for, and the final outcome remains too close to call.
