With only days left before the election, the latest polling results are attracting intense attention. One of the most significant releases this weekend comes from AtlasIntel, the polling firm with the highest accuracy rating from 2020. Their latest numbers show Trump with a slight edge over Harris in critical battleground states, raising eyebrows as both campaigns enter their final push.
According to AtlasIntel, Trump currently leads in six of the seven key battleground states. The only exception is Wisconsin, where Harris holds a narrow lead of just 0.2 points, suggesting a razor-thin margin. This poll’s impact is amplified by AtlasIntel’s reputation; their 2020 polling was considered highly accurate, giving added weight to their latest predictions.
Notably, the national numbers from AtlasIntel show Trump ahead with 49% of the vote compared to Harris’s 47.2%. While these numbers reflect a close race, the battleground state figures are where AtlasIntel’s analysis becomes especially crucial. These swing states, which often decide the outcome of elections, suggest Trump may have a path to victory if current trends hold.
The AtlasIntel poll follows another prominent poll by Ann Selzer, which recently gained traction by showing Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa. Known for her accurate polling in the Midwest, Selzer’s findings have added to the suspense surrounding battleground state dynamics. However, despite Selzer’s reputation, many analysts remain skeptical that Harris can make significant gains in Iowa, traditionally a Republican-leaning state in recent elections.
What really speaks to the reliability of their poll is the stability of their results:
As for the battleground states, the newest poll has Trump ahead in all seven swing states, including Wisconsin. If that wasn’t good enough news for you, his lead is outside the margin of error in three states: Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada.
In North Carolina and Georgia, Trump holds modest leads, outpacing Harris by 3.4 and 2.5 percentage points, respectively. His biggest leads are in Arizona and Nevada, where his advantage reaches 6.5 and 5.5 points. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the race is closer, but Trump maintains slight leads, with margins ranging from 1.0 to 1.8 points. Overall, while the race remains tight in some states, Trump has managed to secure a consistent edge over Harris throughout these battleground regions.
These latest polls highlight the unpredictability and tension surrounding the upcoming election. Despite Harris’s lead in some areas, Trump’s apparent momentum in battleground states could significantly impact the final outcome. With both campaigns focused heavily on voter turnout and last-minute messaging, the results from firms like AtlasIntel could indicate that a tight race is likely to play out until the very end.
This poll translates into a Trump Electoral College victory of 312-226.
As election day nears, AtlasIntel’s polling could become a barometer for each campaign’s final hours, suggesting that the margin of victory in battleground states will be slim and that neither candidate can afford to rest until the very last vote is counted.
