OPEC+ surprised markets by pausing planned output hikes in the first quarter of 2026 and adding just a small 137,000 barrels per day for December, yet crude stayed stubbornly subdued with ICE Brent roughly at $65 a barrel. Traders and analysts point to persistent supply worries, uneven compliance with quotas and a mix of new production, geopolitical skirmishes and demand softness that together keep prices locked in a narrow range.
The pause decision reflected a tug of war inside OPEC+. Reports indicate Russia led the push to hold off the scheduled increases, arguing for time to judge how sanctions and other disruptions are actually affecting its crude output. Saudi Arabia, which had driven triple monthly increases earlier, backed the move for Q1 on the view that inventories are likely to build seasonally and there is little upside in adding to a glut.
On paper OPEC+ has bumped collective quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day so far this year, which offsets nearly half of the voluntary cuts the group announced. In practice most members have produced at around 70 to 75 percent of their targets, and many market watchers say a lot of that extra volume was already making its way into the market, muddying the headline math.
Despite reassurances from oil chiefs meeting in Abu Dhabi that next year’s glut may not be as bad as feared, markets stayed unmoved and crude drifted. A clear, sustained rally looks unlikely without a major geopolitical shock; some traders still peg any significant upside to an escalation in US-Venezuela tensions or other supply-disrupting events.
Corporate moves kept the sector busy outside the OPEC+ headlines. BP moved to sell minority stakes in its US onshore pipeline assets in the Permian and Eagle Ford basins for about $1.5 billion, a sign that energy majors are still reshuffling portfolios under investor pressure. That divestment reflects the push-pull between upstream value and investor appetite for cleaner balance sheets.
Meanwhile, Chevron agreed to explore two offshore blocks in Guinea Bissau with a dominant stake, taking the bulk of the working interest while local partners retain a smaller share. Latin America-focused Geopark rejected an unsolicited takeover approach, and ENI signed up to assess several offshore blocks in Sierra Leone, showing that global exploration appetite remains resilient even as prices stall.
Libya’s national oil company reported a fresh discovery in the Ghadames Basin that is producing around 5,000 barrels per day from the H1-NC4 well, a modest but welcome addition to regional output. In the Gulf, ADNOC is rolling out an AI platform with SLB and Cognite—branded AiPSO—to analyze realtime data and squeeze more efficient production from existing fields, part of a broader industry push to wring gains from technology.
Argentina inked a deal to build a large LNG export facility using gas from Vaca Muerta, while Brazil’s pre-salt fields hit a new production high, pushing the country’s output to about 3.91 million barrels per day in September. Consolidation in the Permian continues too, with majors and independents combining acreage and capital to chase scale, driving a steady reshaping of US shale ownership.
QatarEnergy confirmed the North Field expansion will start producing additional LNG in the second half of 2026, adding almost 49 million tonnes per annum of capacity and altering global gas flows. At the same time, disruptions and strikes in conflict zones are still a wildcard: Ukraine drone strikes reportedly hit a Russian Black Sea port terminal, underscoring the fragility of some export routes.
Venezuela’s exports were hit by shrinking diluent availability, cutting flows and complicating heavy crude upgrading that buyers need to move the barrels. Iraq moved decisively the other way, announcing a temporary halt to gasoline, diesel and kerosene imports as domestic refining output exceeded local demand. Shipping markets felt the squeeze too, with LNG freight rates in the Atlantic Basin climbing to multi-month highs amid tighter vessel availability.
Other industrial shifts matter for energy input chains: Glencore is reported to be planning to close Canada’s Horne smelter amid environmental and modernization costs, while Denmark’s Ørsted sold half of its stake in the Hornsea 3 offshore wind project to shore up its balance sheet. Pakistan has pushed back on long-term LNG cargoes as demand weakens, signaling buyer caution that could ripple through contract markets at a time when supply and demand signals are already noisy.
