Latino voters are moving back toward Democrats in the latest NBC News and Telemundo polling, and the numbers land with a thud for Republicans heading into the midterms. The survey points to deep frustration with Donald Trump, strong concern over immigration enforcement, and a clear preference for Democrats in Congress, even after GOP gains with this group in 2024.
The poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters across the country from Sept. 21 through Sept. 28. It found that 69% disapprove of Trump’s performance, while only 27% approve, which is a rough place for any president with a key voting bloc. The broader mood is even colder on policy, with 66% saying deportation efforts have gone too far and 75% saying Trump has mishandled the economy and the cost of living.
That is a sharp turn in a voting group Republicans had been working hard to peel away from Democrats. Trump and the GOP made some progress in 2024, but this survey suggests that momentum may be slipping fast as voters weigh the everyday pressure points that hit hardest, especially prices, jobs, and immigration. When those issues stack up at once, the political tolerance level drops in a hurry.
On the congressional question, Latino voters leaned heavily toward Democrats. About 59% said they want Democrats in control of Congress, compared with 35% who picked Republicans. That kind of spread matters because it shows the race is not just about one president or one policy fight, but about where voters want the country headed overall.
The shift also becomes clearer when stacked against recent election cycles. Democrats held only a 12-point edge among Latino voters going into the 2024 contests, so the new polling suggests Republicans have given back some of the ground they fought so hard to gain. Even so, the GOP’s longer-term improvement is real, since Latino support for a Republican Congress was far lower in 2016 and 2018, sitting at 21% and 26%.
The polling was conducted through phone interviews and online surveys sent by text message, and the margin of error was listed at 3.5%. That makes the overall picture hard to dismiss, especially since the numbers line up with a broader string of surveys showing Democrats in a stronger position as the midterms approach. The political winds are not subtle here, and they are blowing against the White House.
Trump tried to push back at a rally in Dayton, Ohio, arguing that the bad polls miss the force of his campaign presence. “These fake polls, they don’t account for one thing. They don’t account for the fact that Trump is out campaigning. They never thought this was good. They never thought this was going to happen,” he told the crowd.
He doubled down with a sweeping message aimed at energizing supporters. “With you at my side, we have always prevailed and prevailed by a lot and got record-setting votes and record-setting victory,” Trump said. “We’ve won every battle. We’ve defeated every hope. We’ve overcome every threat. And now we are on the cusp of beating the communists, socialist, radicalized lunatics and villains once and for all. We’re going to put them down once and for all.”
The House battlefield is shaping up to be tight, with Democrats projected to hold 215 seats compared with 201 for Republicans. That means the GOP has little room for error, while Democrats need only a handful of wins in toss-up districts to lock down a majority. The pressure is real, and every swing group, especially Latino voters, is suddenly a lot harder to ignore.
