A recent poll from New York City has sent shockwaves through political circles, revealing a significant drop in support for Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris. Once considered a secure Democratic stronghold, the city’s voter base appears to be shifting in a way that has sparked major interest among Republicans and Democrats alike.
In 2020, then-candidate Joe Biden enjoyed a massive 53-point lead over Donald Trump, with 76% of the city’s support to Trump’s 23%. Fast forward to the current race, and Harris is polling at 66% among likely voters, with Trump’s numbers up to 27%—a substantial shift.
According to this latest data, Trump has made a noticeable gain, and Harris’s support is down by nearly 10 points from the numbers Biden held. If these figures remain steady through election season, this would represent the worst showing for a Democratic presidential candidate in New York City since the late 1980s, as reported by The New York Times.
Trump’s gains in the city are notable not only in absolute terms but for their implications on the larger political landscape. The poll reveals that registered voters in New York who lean Democratic have shifted by a notable margin, with registered voter numbers at 59% for Harris and 31% for Trump—a wider gap but still lower than in past elections.
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Analysts suggest that dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership in New York could be part of what’s driving these shifts, as economic concerns, rising crime rates, and a general sense of disenchantment continue to impact voter sentiment. Trump’s team seems to be seizing on this momentum, which could be seen in Trump’s scheduled rally at Madison Square Garden this Sunday, an event intended to rally support and further press his message.
Part of Trump’s strategy this year includes making inroads with Black, Hispanic, and younger voters, a demographic shift that his campaign hopes could push him even closer to Democratic support levels in cities like New York. Although flipping New York City outright remains unlikely for Trump, these movements in the numbers could help reduce the Democrats’ popular vote edge and potentially weaken support for down-ballot Democratic candidates, aiding Republicans in their fight to regain the House.
Beyond the presidential race, these numbers indicate a wider sentiment across New York that could have a significant impact on local and state races as well. New York Democrats have faced recent setbacks, losing multiple seats in the House in the midterm elections—a blow that contributed to Republicans reclaiming control of the chamber.
The poll also showed considerable dissatisfaction among New Yorkers with the current Democratic candidates for local offices, with a notable percentage of respondents indicating a preference for no candidate on the list, suggesting some voters are seeking alternatives or simply growing fatigued with the current options.
Trump’s upcoming rally is expected to draw significant media attention, with supporters and detractors alike speculating on the potential impact of these numbers. Political analysts have noted that while the drop in support for Harris may not be enough to make New York a red state, it nonetheless signals trouble for Democrats’ broader national strategy.
The focus on key urban demographics is a part of Trump’s efforts to expand his appeal beyond his traditional voter base, leveraging issues like economic concerns, public safety, and job growth to attract historically blue-city voters.
Harris’s supporters are likely to argue that her dip in numbers doesn’t reflect a permanent shift in voter sentiment. Instead, they suggest, the poll may indicate that more New Yorkers are interested in alternatives within the Democratic Party, not necessarily in flipping to the Republican ticket.
Still, the shift in New York City’s numbers aligns with a broader national pattern: Trump has steadily gained support from diverse communities, particularly among younger voters and Hispanic voters in traditionally Democratic regions. This uptick in support has further energized his campaign as he aims to counteract Democrat advantages in major cities.
The Harris camp is expected to recalibrate its strategy in response to these numbers, perhaps by addressing issues closer to home, where high-profile events and targeted messaging might shore up support. Some local Democratic leaders are also likely to address the economic and safety concerns affecting their constituents to regain traction with voters.
For now, the results of the poll reflect a shift in a state that, while far from swinging red, could see a narrowing margin that has long eluded Republicans. This polling snapshot of New York City serves as a potential warning sign for the Harris campaign and, by extension, the Democrats’ 2024 strategy. Whether this trend continues or fades will likely depend on both campaigns’ ability to speak directly to the concerns of urban voters in the months leading up to the election.
