The election of Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through Iran, with the country’s leadership grappling with renewed pressure and the prospect of U.S. sanctions. Following Trump’s historic victory, Iran’s currency, the rial, plummeted to an all-time low, trading at 703,000 rials to the U.S. dollar before stabilizing slightly at 696,150.
This economic turmoil comes amid heightened tensions, as Iran braces for the return of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, a policy that previously crippled its economy. Under Trump’s previous administration, sanctions cut Iran’s access to global markets, causing the rial to lose much of its value.
In a stark reminder of the hostility between Tehran and Washington, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) posted a chilling video on Telegram threatening Trump’s life. The video showed a graphic image of Trump covered in blood, with the ominous message, “We will finish the job.” This is a reference to the assassination of IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in 2019, which Trump authorized.
“The Islamic Republic has to be terrified that the presidential candidate they once tried to kill has just won the election,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, an expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
Iran’s economic struggles have worsened as global markets react to the election results. The rial’s plunge reflects fears that Trump’s sanctions will return, potentially targeting Iran’s oil exports, banking sector, and access to foreign currency. When the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was signed, the rial traded at 32,000 to the dollar. By contrast, under Iran’s current reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, the currency devalued to over 696,000 to $1 following Trump’s win.
Despite sanctions, Iran has managed near-record oil exports, estimated at 1.7 million barrels per day, thanks in part to reduced enforcement under President Joe Biden. However, analysts warn that this could change swiftly under Trump’s leadership.
Adding to the tensions, Iran is reportedly only weeks away from producing enough material for a nuclear weapon. Experts warn that Trump’s return could force Iran to accelerate its nuclear ambitions as a bargaining chip or deterrent.
Taleblu cautioned that Iran’s threats of nuclear escalation should not be taken lightly. “Tehran knows maximum pressure is set to return,” he said, suggesting that the regime may use its nuclear program to push back against impending sanctions.
Trump’s re-election signals a sharp pivot from Biden’s approach, which sought to re-engage Iran diplomatically. Under Biden, sanctions enforcement was relaxed, allowing Iran some economic breathing room in exchange for halting its nuclear advancements.
However, Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and subsequent sanctions had a devastating impact on Iran’s economy. With his return to power, Trump is expected to double down on this strategy.
Critics of Biden’s policies point to recent sanctions waivers allowing Iraq to purchase energy from Iran as evidence of a softer stance. The White House, however, insists that these funds are strictly for humanitarian purposes and do not benefit Iran’s leadership or the IRGC.
Trump’s victory also complicates Iran’s regional ambitions, particularly its confrontations with Israel. Recent skirmishes between the two nations have escalated, with Iran launching attacks on Tel Aviv and Israel retaliating against Iranian military sites. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed countermeasures, but Trump’s strong support for Israel may give Tehran pause.
Sean McFate, a security expert, noted that Trump’s administration previously bolstered Israel through actions such as withdrawing from the JCPOA and supporting the Abraham Accords. However, some analysts suggest Trump’s “America First” approach might limit U.S. military interventions, potentially reducing support for Israel in conflicts.
Despite the looming challenges, Iran’s government publicly downplayed Trump’s victory. “The U.S. elections are not really our business,” Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said. “Our policies are steady and don’t change based on individuals.”
However, analysts see this as posturing. With Trump’s return, Iran faces renewed isolation and economic hardship, forcing it to either escalate tensions or seek a diplomatic path.
Trump’s election marks a turning point for U.S.-Iran relations. As Iran’s currency plummets and threats from the IRGC intensify, Tehran must navigate a precarious path. Whether it chooses confrontation or negotiation will have significant implications for regional stability and its own survival.
