The movement to bypass the Electoral College is facing an unexpected setback. Maine, a state that joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, is now considering leaving the agreement. This change is causing concern among those on the left who believed they had found a way to circumvent the Constitution.
Last year, Maine decided to join the compact, which aimed to allocate all participating states’ electoral votes to the candidate winning the national popular vote. Now, the state is having doubts. A bipartisan bill to withdraw from the compact passed in the Maine House and is moving to the state Senate.
This shift is not surprising. The National Popular Vote compact has primarily been driven by Democrats frustrated with Electoral College results. The 2000 election and Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton intensified this movement.
Liberal states like California and New York signed on, but the compact still falls short of the 270 electoral votes needed for activation. As the 2024 election approached, some worried Trump might win the presidency again without the popular vote. However, Trump won both the Electoral College and the national popular vote.
Maine’s situation highlights why the compact was flawed. Democrats believed Trump couldn’t win the popular vote again. But his 2024 victory changed the game entirely.
If the compact had been in effect, Trump would have secured 520 electoral votes instead of 312. This irony is hard to ignore. Democrats pushed the compact thinking it would favor their candidates permanently.
Maine Rep. Barbara Bagshaw, who sponsored the withdrawal bill, emphasized the importance of the state’s current system. Maine splits its Electoral College votes by congressional district, ensuring diverse representation. The popular vote compact would undermine this.
Now that Trump has shown he can win both ways, blue states are reconsidering their stance. If Maine successfully exits, others might follow suit. The compact was based on the belief that Republicans couldn’t win the popular vote, a notion Trump has now dispelled.
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It’s clear that the compact’s foundation is shaky. The belief that the popular vote would always favor Democrats has been proven wrong. As Maine moves towards withdrawal, the future of the compact is in question.
