A study from the University of Buckingham’s Centre for Heterodox Social Science says gender ideology is losing appeal among younger cohorts and the pool of adolescents identifying as trans or non-binary is shrinking. Researchers argue this looks less like a political wave and more like a cultural fashion fading.
The paper leans on several campus and institutional surveys, including FIRE’s big annual undergraduate poll of more than 60,000 students this year. Dr. Eric Kaufmann noted that “the share of young people not identifying as male or female (typically ticking the non-binary or questioning options) has declined substantially since its 2022-23 peak.” That pattern appears across elite-school and university data sets.
Institutional numbers are stark: Andover Phillips Academy reported a fall from over 9% non-binary in 2023 to roughly 3% this year. FIRE and a Brown student survey show similar drops, with non-binary shares moving from about 6.8% to 3.6% and from roughly 5% to 2.6% respectively. Those swings cluster among the youngest cohorts.
Meanwhile identification as gay or lesbian has stayed in a narrow 3 to 5 percent band, while straight identity is rebounding. FIRE found straightness sliding from 80% in 2020 to 68% in 2023 before recovering to about 77% now. The General Social Survey shows a related arc, falling from 95% in 2010 to 71% in 2022 and rising to 81% last year.
Other categories spiked and then contracted. Andover Phillips reports bisexual identification rose from 10% to 17% between 2020 and 2023 and has since fallen to 12%. The “queer and other” group jumped from 7% to 17% in 2023 and now sits near 12%, while FIRE’s “queer and other” fell from 15% to 8%.
Kaufmann reads these shifts as cohort-driven identity changes rather than a political conversion, arguing “it appears that trans and queer are going out of fashion among young people, especially in elite settings,” and that the freshman 2028 cohort “was less likely than older students in 2025 to identify as BTQ+.” Newer generations may not sustain the same identity mix as earlier ones.
Kaufmann added, “To the extent that the youngest represent the leading edge of new trends, this suggests that trans, bisexual and queer identities are declining in popularity with each new cohort.” The professor also notes the decline “does not appear to be the result of a shift to the right, the return of religion, or a rejection of woke culture war attitudes.”
‘The fall of trans and queer seems most similar to the fading of a fashion or trend.’
Kaufmann on X that “the fall of trans and queer seems most similar to the fading of a fashion or trend. It happened largely independently of shifts in political beliefs and social media use, though improved mental health played a role.” The post echoes the study’s basic claim that the change is social and cohort-based.
Public opinion is shifting too: about two-thirds of adults favor listing birth sex on government documents and similarly support sports rules keyed to biological sex. Pew-style polling indicates most Americans back restrictions on child sex-change interventions, and many states have limits in law. That signals growing mainstream skepticism of medical interventions for minors.
Independent surveys show younger men are among the most skeptical: PRRI-style data found 66% of men ages 18 to 29 think sex-change interventions, including puberty blockers and hormone therapy, should be illegal in most or all cases. That reverses earlier patterns when youth led the surge toward varied gender labels. The shift is already shaping state and federal debates.
Conservative policymakers and parents are taking notice as cultural trends affect policy choices. Expect lawmakers who favor biological-sex protections to press their case as these numbers circulate. The political fight over education and medicine for minors will likely follow these cohort shifts closely.
8/ The fall of trans and queer seems most similar to the fading of a fashion or trend. It happened largely independently of shifts in political beliefs and social media use, though improved mental health played a role. pic.twitter.com/KCKzrO3hYc
— Eric Kaufmann (@epkaufm) October 14, 2025
