New Poll: VP Vance Leads Over Gov. Newsom in Potential 2028 Showdown

Governor Gavin Newsom of California is often seen as a leading figure for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. However, a recent poll suggests that he might face significant challenges. In a hypothetical face-off, Newsom would lose to Vice President JD Vance, a key figure in the Republican Party.

The poll, conducted by Emerson College, reveals that Vance would not only defeat Newsom but also outshine other Democratic hopefuls. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg would also fall short against Vance. These results indicate a strong position for Vance as he connects with the Republican base.

In the match-up between Vance and Newsom, Vance leads with 45% compared to Newsom’s 42%, while 13% remain undecided. Similarly, Vance holds a slight edge over Ocasio-Cortez, with 44% to her 41%, leaving 15% unsure. Against Buttigieg, Vance again comes out on top with a narrow margin of 44% to 43%.

Interestingly, the poll did not include former Vice President Kamala Harris, who was the Democratic nominee in 2024. It is speculated that Harris might not pursue another presidential bid. Instead, she could be eyeing a run for California governor in 2026.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted the significance of the undecided voters. He highlighted that around 13% of the electorate remains persuadable, with the rest firmly aligned with their party of choice.

There is little doubt that Newsom is gearing up for a presidential run in 2028. The main question is his position among potential Democratic contenders. The Hill ranks him in the middle of their top ten contenders for the nomination.

With his term as governor ending soon, Newsom is expected to launch a primary campaign. His recent visits to early-voting primary states hint at his national ambitions. Newsom has been working to solidify his standing within the Democratic base while also making overtures to moderate voters.

However, Newsom’s campaign could be hindered by his leftist policies and California’s ongoing issues. Many perceive him as an elite politician disconnected from everyday Americans. These factors may challenge his appeal among a broader electorate.

Despite these challenges, Newsom remains a prominent figure in the Democratic race. According to RacetotheWH’s national average for 2028 Democratic primary polls, he is a frontrunner. Depending on Harris’s decision, Newsom holds either second or third place with about 12.7% support.

Without Harris in the race, Newsom trails only Buttigieg. He leads other potential candidates, including Ocasio-Cortez, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker. Others, like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, garner less support.

The landscape for the Democratic nomination is still taking shape. Newsom’s position as a contender is clear, yet his path will need careful navigation. The coming years will be crucial in determining his political future.