Alaska’s Senate fight is hanging by a thread, with vote counting dragging on and the state’s ranked-choice system once again stirring frustration, confusion, and suspicion. Gov. Mike Dunleavy says the process is hard for voters to follow, especially with a race that could pivot on a few thousand late-counted ballots and a separate ballot question on the voting system itself.
Dunleavy said the margin is so tight that nothing is close to settled yet. He pointed to key ballot updates expected on Nov. 13 and Nov. 18, saying those batches could reshape the standings in a hurry.
“It’s a slow system up here in Alaska,” he admitted, acknowledging that “we’ve got quite an issue up here.” He added, “A big batch of votes will come and that’ll really determine, you know, who’s going to have the lead.”
At the center of the race, Democrat Mary Peltola is ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by just 637 votes, according to the latest count. With no fresh tallies coming in for days, the result has been stuck in place while Alaskans wait for the next wave of ballots to be processed.
The state’s ranked-choice setup is making the wait even more maddening. If no candidate clears 50% as the top choice by Nov. 25, the contest moves into later rounds built around voters’ second and third selections, which can scramble the final outcome in ways many people still find hard to track.
Dunleavy did not soften his view of the system. “It is very confusing,” he said, noting that the same election also featured a repeal measure aimed at scrapping the voting method that was adopted just a couple of years ago.
That repeal question is barely any clearer than the Senate race itself. The “No” side is holding a thin lead, but that vote remains unsettled too, keeping the whole election picture wrapped in uncertainty.
“We’re still in the process of bringing in votes and counting votes,” Dunleavy said. “And we are in the midst of investigations as to determine if there was any wrongdoing, especially anything that might resemble perjury or, you know, a misrepresentation of individual’s intent on how they wanted their candidacy to be placed on the ballot.”
The scrutiny has been sharpened by the so-called “Decoy Dan” controversy, which refers to Daniel J. Sullivan appearing on the ballot in a way critics say may have been designed to pull votes away from the Republican incumbent. Dunleavy said the episode raised red flags early and pushed election officials to look harder at whether the candidacy was legitimate.
“That kind of opened our eyes and we began an investigation back there, the Division of Elections did, to determine if this was a legitimate candidacy, and the Division of Elections at that time found that was not and did not put him on the ballot,” Dunleavy said. “Then there was a court case and the Supreme Court in the end ruled against the Division of Elections in Alaska, and they must go on the ballot.”
The governor also said a report suggesting the Peltola campaign may have had knowledge of the ballot maneuver pushed Alaska into a fresh round of inquiry. “When The New York Times article came out, you know, we already knew a lot of what was happening there, but there was more revelations of that article,” he said. “As a result of that, we began another investigation up here in Alaska, and the Department of Justice did the same, so you have this investigation going on right in the middle of an election.”
That kind of mess can leave voters feeling like the ground keeps shifting under their feet. In a state where every late ballot matters, and where the rules themselves are part of the fight, the final result still feels like it could belong to whoever survives the next count, the next challenge, and the next twist.
