With one month until California’s open primary, this piece looks at the messy field, the polls showing 26% of voters undecided, the risk of two Republicans advancing, the Democrats’ struggle to consolidate behind a clear front-runner, and the warnings from party leaders about how the top-two system could backfire.
California’s top-two primary leaves the door wide open for an unexpected result. If Democrats fragment their vote, two Republicans could end up on the November ballot, shutting Democrats out of the general election entirely. That possibility is no longer theoretical — recent numbers and the crowded field make it a realistic threat.
Several surveys show Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox host Steve Hilton leading the overall pack among likely voters. On the same surveys Democrats are split among multiple candidates, and 26% of voters say they are still undecided. That level of uncertainty creates real leverage for organized, consolidated campaigns on the right.
Among Democrats, Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra have been gaining traction, but neither has a commanding lead yet. One poll put Steyer at 15% and Becerra at 13%, with Katie Porter at 9%, Matt Mahan and Antonio Villaraigosa around 4% each, and Tony Thurmond near 1%. Meanwhile the same snapshot showed Hilton at 16% and Bianco at 10%, highlighting how narrow margins could produce a dramatic outcome.
Another poll conducted over the same period showed Becerra inching ahead of Steyer and just a point in front of Hilton, which underscores how volatile this race remains. That volatility favors the party that can act fast and stay unified. Republicans can exploit a split field simply by turning out their voters and avoiding infighting.
Democratic leaders have noticed the danger and suggested trimming the field to give voters a clearer choice. Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, has urged candidates to step back in hopes a single front-runner will emerge, and he has openly criticized the open primary. “The current system we have does not work,” he said.
“The stakes are so incredibly high,” Hicks added, arguing the primary format could hand the state to opponents if Democrats fail to consolidate. He warned that the situation is urgent and framed the outcome as tied to broader concerns, stating, “We have democracy itself under attack, and the United States [is no longer] the beacon of hope for democracies around the world the way it once was.”
California voters will start receiving mail-in ballots beginning May 4, a logistical detail that matters in a tight, low-information race where many voters remain undecided. Early voting and turnout strategy will likely determine who makes the top two in June. Campaigns that focus on mobilizing loyal supporters rather than persuading the undecided may find the clearest path to advancement.
The Democratic field began with a larger roster of candidates and has already seen a few drop out, but no decisive coalescing has happened. If Democrats can rally around one candidate in the final weeks, they might blunt the top-two risk. If they cannot, the state faces the prospect of a general election without a Democratic nominee, which would be a major political shock in California.
For Republicans this is a straightforward opportunity: stay organized, push turnout, and capitalize on a divided opposition. For Democratic voters and leaders it’s a warning to either unify quickly or accept a likely disappointing result in November. The clock is short, and the consequences could reshape California politics for years to come.
