The hit to congressional Democrats’ approval ratings has been brutal and sudden, and this piece walks through the numbers, the explanations analysts offered, and why Republicans see the collapse as a political opening. CNN’s Harry Enten laid out a timeline from a temporary shutdown bump to a deeper slump once President Trump ended the impasse, and long-running Quinnipiac polling shows Democrats in unusually weak territory. The votes and the headlines now point to a tougher map for the party trying to flip the House.
Democrats had hoped the shutdown episode would rally their base, but the numbers tell a different story and Republican strategists are taking notice. The boost during the shutdown evaporated quickly after the resolution, and voters seemed to penalize the party for how the fight played out. That reversal has hardened messages about electability and competence heading into the midterms.
‘There are a lot of Democrats who might be thinking, “Hey we can spike that ball in the end zone!” but the numbers at this point say, “Hold on just a minute.”‘ That blunt observation from the analyst captures how expectations collided with polling reality. It also frames how Democratic optimism is being tested by raw public opinion shifts.
At one point congressional Democrats enjoyed a net approval rating of 22 percentage points among Democratic voters in October, a number that flipped to a net negative six points just two months later. “Democrats, in the minds of the American public, are lower than the Dead Sea,” said Enten. Those are not partisan talking points, they are blunt poll findings being used by opponents to question the party’s momentum.
“Overall they are 55 points underwater. Their approval rating is south of 20%. It’s even worse when you look at independents, look at this — negative 61 points!” he added. “That means that their approval rating is 61 points lower than their disapproval rating.” Quinnipiac, which has tracked congressional Democratic approval for 16 years, told analysts it has never seen them “in worse shape than they are right now.”
Even with those dire numbers, some indicators still left a sliver of hope for House gains, but the path looks narrower than before. Enten compared past generic ballot advantages during Republican administrations and noted Democrats have posted a 10% edge twice since 2005, yet that cushion was thinner by 2015, sliding to about 4%. For Republicans, the takeaway is straightforward: fewer seats are safe to assume as vulnerabilities pile up.
‘I think that’s why at this point there are a lot of Democrats who might be thinking, ‘Hey we can spike that ball in the end zone!’ but the numbers at this point say, ‘Hold on just a minute,'” he added. “Yes, you’re on your way to a congressional majority, but it’s still a long time, and with numbers this considerably weaker, and historically speaking, it might be a tougher road to hoe.” Those words underline how even optimistic scenarios are now being hedged with caution.
The polling analyst said that Democratic voters turned away from the party after the end of the government shutdown because they did not like how that debate turned out for them. Voter attention shifted to competence, outcomes, and who controlled the narrative, and those factors favored the party that resolved the stalemate. Below the headlines, campaign teams are already repositioning talking points to reflect the new polling reality.
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Enten of the segment to his social media account. Republicans are using the data as both a rallying cry for fundraising and a blunt argument to undecided voters that the opposition is out of step with mainstream concerns. The coming weeks will test whether this polling snapshot translates into durable changes at the ballot box.
