China is heading into a high-stakes meeting with the United States from a weaker position than it wants to admit. President Donald Trump is facing Xi Jinping with low expectations, a shaky trade truce hanging in the background, and a long list of bad behavior that keeps piling up. If Beijing wants another round of polite talk and empty reassurances, this moment is already looking like one more dead end.
The immediate agenda is small by design. Officials are mainly trying to keep last year’s trade truce alive, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in contact with Chinese negotiators as the Nov. 10 expiration date approaches. That alone says plenty about the state of the relationship, since the best-case scenario is not a breakthrough but simple damage control.
China keeps calling for “stability,” but stability for Beijing usually means freedom to keep doing the same ugly things without consequences. That includes the sale of fentanyl precursors, theft of American intellectual property, predatory trade tactics, support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the quiet work of secret police activity inside the United States. Add in help for Iran’s attacks on Americans, and the word “dialogue” starts sounding awfully generous.
The Iran connection matters because it is not abstract. Chinese satellite data has allegedly helped Tehran target U.S. forces, with deadly results in the region. When American diplomacy keeps drifting forward anyway, Beijing gets the message that there is no real price for helping America’s enemies.
That problem did not begin yesterday. Washington has spent decades trying to keep China at the table, starting with the long drive toward the Nixon-Mao opening in the 1970s. Instead of building mutual respect, that habit seems to have fed Beijing’s sense that America will always come back for more, no matter how badly it is treated.
Trump already made one trip to Beijing earlier this year, and the results were thin. The big issues stayed stuck, which is why the upcoming talks feel more like a test of patience than a chance at progress. Xi’s own posture has not helped, especially after his not-so-subtle talk of the “Thucydides Trap,” a phrase loaded with the idea that a rising power should shove aside a fading one.
Then there is Xi’s bigger worldview, which leaves little room for fair dealing. He has long pushed the idea of a “new era” in which China takes center stage and the United States fades into the background. That is not the language of cooperation, and it explains why every summit tends to produce smiles on camera and friction underneath.
Still, Xi is arriving in Washington from a weaker position than before. Recent turmoil inside the Communist Party has only deepened the sense that he is not operating from a place of strength, with senior military figures reportedly purged on corruption and disloyalty charges. When a leader is busy cleaning house at the top, it is harder to look like the master of events.
China’s economic slowdown is adding to that pressure. Domestic frustration is rising, questions about Xi’s health keep surfacing, and an underwhelming showing at the BRICS gathering in New Delhi did little to project confidence. A leader trying to manage all that at home is not exactly in the best shape to lecture the United States on global order.
That weakness gives Trump leverage, but leverage only matters if it is used. Beijing has spent years testing boundaries, counting on America to keep choosing conversation over consequences. If this meeting turns out to be more theater than substance, the next move should not be another round of hopeful diplomacy with no teeth behind it.
