Maine’s Senate race is still stuck in a tight, bruising battle, with Susan Collins and Troy Jackson separated by only a sliver in a new statewide Fox News poll. The matchup has shifted, but the basic picture has not: Collins is fighting a familiar cloud around her ties to Donald Trump, while Jackson is trying to turn his late entry into a real opening against a long-time incumbent.
Collins has been a fixture in Maine politics for years, and that kind of staying power usually brings built-in support. Even so, the poll shows a clear warning sign for her campaign, with a majority of voters saying they worry she lines up with Trump too often. That concern is strong enough to shape the race, especially in a state where the president remains deeply unpopular.
Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former Maine Senate leader, entered the contest after the Democratic field changed in July. His arrival gave Democrats a different kind of nominee, one with a working-class image and a sharper contrast against Collins. It also reframed the election around whether voters want to keep the familiar Republican or take a swing at change.
The numbers reflect that shift. More of Jackson’s supporters now say they are voting mainly against Collins than say they are voting for him, which is a big clue about the mood of the race. Collins, meanwhile, has a stronger share of voters backing her because they genuinely want her, not just because they dislike the alternative.
That difference matters because Maine voters are not looking at this race in a vacuum. Inflation is still sitting at the top of the issue list, and plenty of voters say their financial footing will shape how they vote. Jackson is especially strong with people who say they are falling behind financially, which gives his campaign a real lane to exploit.
Independent voters continue to be one of the most important groups in the state, and they are not locking in neatly behind either side. In the poll, they lean Jackson, but not by some massive gap that would put the race out of reach for Collins. That is why the contest still feels like a knife fight, not a parade.
There is also a sharp partisan split under the surface. Nearly all Democrats are behind Jackson, while most Republicans are with Collins, but the softer middle is where this gets interesting. Non-MAGA Republicans are less united than Collins would like, and some of them are open to Jackson, which tells you the GOP side is not perfectly sealed.
Jackson’s support is strongest among liberals, younger voters, women with college degrees and union households. Collins does better with conservatives, older voters, rural residents, married voters and voters without a college degree. Those coalitions are familiar, but the poll suggests both camps are still fighting to define the race in their own terms.
Personal ratings are helping shape the fight too. Collins’ numbers have slipped into negative territory, while Jackson sits just barely above water, which is not a comfortable place but still better than being under it. Voters who dislike both parties are also tilting Jackson’s way, a sign that anti-establishment energy is still humming in the background.
That kind of environment keeps Collins in danger even as she leans on experience and name recognition. The race is close enough that a few points one way or the other could change the feel overnight. And with Democrats treating Maine as a must-win seat, Jackson is stepping into a contest where every weakness on the Republican side gets magnified fast.
The governor’s race is moving along in the same political weather, with Democrat Hannah Pingree holding an advantage over Republican Bobby Charles while a third candidate pulls a small share. Even there, the numbers suggest plenty of room for movement, which is what makes Maine such a restless place politically right now.
