As Donald J. Trump secures a historic presidential victory, the global stage has shifted its gaze to what this means for the war in Ukraine. Trump has long claimed that the conflict would never have started on his watch and vowed during his campaign to bring an end to it, famously promising he could achieve peace “within 24 hours.” His comments suggested a shift in U.S. aid policy toward Ukraine, one that could press Kyiv to negotiate.
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In the immediate aftermath of Trump’s win, Ukraine moved swiftly to congratulate him, though analysts noted a somewhat reserved tone in their message. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was among the first world leaders to acknowledge Trump’s victory, expressing optimism about working together on peace efforts in Ukraine.
Taking to X, formerly Twitter, Zelensky congratulated Trump and recalled their previous discussions around U.S.-Ukraine cooperation. His message emphasized the strength of the U.S.-Ukraine strategic partnership and hinted at a shared “Victory Plan” aimed at countering Russian aggression.
“Congratulations to @realDonaldTrump on his impressive election victory! I recall our great meeting with President Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression,” Zelensky wrote in his post.
Many analysts have raised concerns that a Trump administration might push Ukraine toward a “bad peace” with Russia, given Trump’s critical stance on the extensive U.S. aid packages sent to Kyiv. During his campaign, Trump made headlines by referring to Zelensky as “maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that’s ever lived,” suggesting that Zelensky has been remarkably effective in securing aid from Washington. Trump even joked that “every time [Zelensky] comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion.”
For Ukraine, the fear is that any cessation or reduction in U.S. support could limit its capacity to negotiate from a position of strength. Meanwhile, Ukrainians hope Trump’s support for an “America First” approach does not come at the cost of their territorial sovereignty.
On the Russian side, the Kremlin has reacted with a degree of cautious optimism, while acknowledging that the U.S. remains an “unfriendly” nation due to its continued support for Ukraine. The Kremlin is waiting to see if Trump’s promises to end the conflict translate into actions that favor a diplomatic solution.
Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for President Vladimir Putin, commented on Trump’s win, noting, “We have repeatedly said that the U.S. is able to contribute to the end of this conflict. This cannot be done overnight, but the U.S. is capable of changing the trajectory of its foreign policy. Will this happen, and if so, how … we will see after the U.S. president’s inauguration in January.”
However, Moscow is tempering its expectations. Putin has emphasized that the identity of the U.S. president is less important than the actions they take. The former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a key proponent of aggressive tactics in Ukraine, reacted by suggesting that Trump’s victory is a mixed blessing for Kyiv. On Telegram, Medvedev hinted that Trump’s skepticism of international spending could work against Ukraine, which depends on Washington as a key military and financial ally.
“Trump has one quality that is useful to us: as a businessman to the core, he mortally dislikes spending money on various hangers-on and freeloaders,” Medvedev wrote, referring to what he called “idiotic allies” and “gluttonous international organizations.” He included “Bandera Ukraine”—a derogatory term used by Russian officials for Ukraine—as part of this group and speculated on the limits of Trump’s support for Kyiv.
Trump’s path forward in relation to Ukraine remains unclear. While he has openly criticized the scale of U.S. support for Ukraine, calling it an expensive venture, he has also spoken broadly about achieving a peace settlement. However, if his administration cuts back on aid, Ukraine could face an uphill battle in maintaining its defense against Russian forces, who currently control around 20% of Ukrainian territory, largely in the south and east.
Trump’s emphasis on prioritizing domestic spending and scaling back foreign entanglements raises questions about whether the U.S. will continue bipartisan support for Ukraine. For Kyiv, any sudden reduction in aid would be challenging, but they may be forced to negotiate terms if a cutback makes it difficult to sustain the war effort.
Relations between Washington and Moscow have deteriorated significantly in recent years, reaching what many describe as their lowest point since the Cold War. Although Putin has downplayed the significance of who sits in the Oval Office, many in Moscow see Trump as less committed to an adversarial approach than previous administrations. If Trump’s administration takes a softer line, Moscow may feel emboldened in its ambitions, though Russia remains wary of placing too much stock in any American president’s promises.
While Zelensky emphasizes the importance of bipartisan support, Russia sees a potential opening if Trump pursues a peace agenda. However, Trump’s campaign rhetoric does not automatically mean an immediate shift, as he would still face significant resistance from both parties in Congress if he attempts to drastically cut aid or negotiate with Moscow.
As Trump’s inauguration draws near, the world is watching closely. The war in Ukraine remains one of the most pressing global issues, and Trump’s victory has introduced new questions about whether a peaceful settlement might finally be within reach. For now, both Kyiv and Moscow are waiting to see what actions Trump takes once in office and how those actions will shape the course of this ongoing conflict.
